Climate Change and Agricultural Interregional Trade Flows in the People's Republic of China

Tun Lin (), Xiaoyun Liu (), Guanghua Wan, Xian Xin () and Yongsheng Zhang ()
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Tun Lin: Asian Development Bank
Xiaoyun Liu: China Agricultural University
Xian Xin: China Agricultural University
Yongsheng Zhang: Development Research Center

No 244, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the People's Republic of China (PRC) are significant, and differ across regions and crops. The substantial regional differences will induce changes in the agricultural interregional trade pattern. In this paper, we investigate the climate change impacts on this trade pattern, using a computable general equilibrium model of multiple regions and multiple sectors. The results indicate that Northwest, South, Central, and Northeast PRC will see increases in the outflows of agricultural products in 2030 and 2050. Conversely, outflows from East, North, and Southwest PRC will decrease. Grain handling and transportation facilities need to be repositioned to address the changes in agricultural trade flows.

Keywords: agricultural production; climate change; interregional trade; Peoples Republic of China; regional differences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q11 Q54 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2011-01-01
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