When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for the People's Republic of China

Donghyun Park, Barry Eichengreen and Kwanho Shin

No 262, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: Using international data starting 1957, this paper constructs a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that the People's Republic of China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.

Keywords: economic growth; international data; per capita incomes; real exchange rates; slowdown (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 O40 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 51 pages
Date: 2011-06-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:adbewp:0262

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