Myanmar’s Trade and its Potential

Benno Ferrarini
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Benno Ferrarini: Asian Development Bank

No 325, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: The paper tabulates Myanmar’s merchandise trade as reported by its partner countries, thereby circumventing the data constraints stemming from Myanmar’s patchy trade records. It then estimates Myanmar’s export potential, based on the bilateral export patterns observed for six other countries in Southeast Asia. Against that benchmark and controlling for outliers, Myanmar is found to be trading at about 15% its potential. The bulk of this gap is explained by very low trade with the industrialized countries. Through reintegration with the world economy accompanied by deep economic reforms domestically, Myanmar would be expected to be closing this gap rather swiftly.

Keywords: Myanmar; gravity model; export potential (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 59 pages
Date: 2013-01-31
Note: http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2013/ewp-325.pdf
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:adbewp:0325

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