The Impact of Trade Conflict on Developing Asia

Abdul Abiad, Kristina Baris (), Donald Jay Bertulfo (), Shiela Camingue-Romance (), Paul Neilmer Feliciano (), Joseph Mariasingham (), Valerie Mercer-Blackman () and John Arvin Bernabe ()
Additional contact information
Kristina Baris: Asian Development Bank
Donald Jay Bertulfo: Asian Development Bank
Shiela Camingue-Romance: Asian Development Bank
Paul Neilmer Feliciano: Asian Development Bank
Joseph Mariasingham: Asian Development Bank
Valerie Mercer-Blackman: Asian Development Bank
John Arvin Bernabe: Asian Development Bank

No 566, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of the current trade conflict on developing Asia using the Asian Development Bank’s Multiregional Input–Output Table (MRIOT), allowing us to calculate the impact on individual countries and on sectors within countries. The analysis estimates the direct impact on all tariff-affected goods; uses input–output analysis to estimate indirect effects on gross domestic product (GDP), exports, and employment; and allows for redirection of trade toward other producers using the approach of Feenstra and Sasahara (2017). A full escalation of the bilateral United States (US)–People’s Republic of China (PRC) trade conflict would shave 1% off PRC GDP and 0.2% off US GDP. The rest of developing Asia could see small net gains thanks to trade redirection, particularly in the electronics sector. A trade war in autos and parts would hurt the European Union and Japan. The conflict has substantial negative effects on PRC and US employment, but only minor impacts on current account balances.

Keywords: exports; input–output; international trade; tariffs; trade conflict; trade redirection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E00 F13 F14 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2018-12-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-mac, nep-sea and nep-war
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Working Paper: The Impact of Trade Conflict on Developing Asia (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:adbewp:0566

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