Assessing the Implications of a Global Net-Zero Transition for Developing Asia: Insights from Integrated Assessment Modeling

Johannes Emmerling (), Lara Aleluia Reis (), Laurent Drouet (), David Raitzer () and Manisha Pradhananga ()
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Johannes Emmerling: European Institute on Economics and the Environment
Lara Aleluia Reis: European Institute on Economics and the Environment
Laurent Drouet: European Institute on Economics and the Environment
David Raitzer: Asian Development Bank
Manisha Pradhananga: Asian Development Bank

No 709, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: This paper uses a global integrated assessment model to assess how developing Asia, the world’s fastest-growing source of carbon emissions, could transition to low-carbon growth. It finds that national net-zero pledges do not have a high chance of keeping peak warming below 2°C. Under an efficient approach to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, the power sector would almost fully decarbonize by mid-century, and emissions from land use would strongly fall. Although the climate has a lagged response to emissions reductions, climate benefits outweigh costs by a factor of 3, with gains concentrated in the lowest-income subregions of Asia. Air quality would also improve, saving about 0.35 million lives in the region by 2050. Including these co-benefits raises the benefit–cost ratio for Asia under ambitious decarbonization to 5. Energy-related employment also rises during the transition. However, appropriate policies are needed to address potential effects on disadvantaged groups.

Keywords: climate change; greenhouse gas; mitigation; energy; land use; net-zero; NDCs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 D58 Q52 Q53 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 58 pages
Date: 2023-12-18
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-sea
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:adbewp:0709

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