Decarbonization Pathways in Developing Asia: Evidence from Modeling Scenarios

Manisha Pradhananga (), David Raitzer (), Iva Sebastian-Samaniego () and Daryll Naval ()
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Manisha Pradhananga: Asian Development Bank
David Raitzer: Asian Development Bank
Iva Sebastian-Samaniego: Asian Development Bank
Daryll Naval: Asian Development Bank

No 711, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: Unless developing Asia decarbonizes its development, global warming is unlikely to stay below the internationally agreed limit of 2°C above preindustrial levels. Integrated assessment modeling offers insights into how a low carbon transition can be achieved. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change incorporated an ambitious model intercomparison effort that compiled thousands of model-scenario combinations to consider low carbon development pathways. This paper explores the evidence within that database to consider decarbonization pathways for developing Asia. Overall, a comparison of the major models finds strong consistency in the transformation of the energy sector required to achieve Paris Agreement goals. This includes a rapid decline in the share of coal—a mainstay of the power sector in developing Asia—and a substantial rise in renewable energy. The cost of the transition can be relatively low if mitigation efforts are efficient, as assumed in the models.

Keywords: climate change; integrated assessment model; mitigation; energy; Paris Agreement; NDCs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 D58 Q40 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2023-12-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-sea
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