From Noise to Turning Points: A New Framework for Seasonal Adjustment in Armenia

Gevorg Minasyan, Stefan Schipper, Lusya Khachatryan, Seda Movsisyan and Pamela Lapitan
Additional contact information
Gevorg Minasyan: Asian Development Bank
Stefan Schipper: Asian Development Bank
Lusya Khachatryan: Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia
Seda Movsisyan: Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia
Pamela Lapitan: Asian Development Bank

No 786, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: This paper evaluates the transition from X12-ARIMA to X13-ARIMA-SEATS for the seasonal adjustment of Armenia’s quarterly national accounts (QNA). We analyze the methodological advancements and their impact on key economic indicators, focusing on the precision and reliability of seasonally adjusted data. Our findings suggest that the indirect seasonal adjustment method, despite larger revisions, is preferable, given potential variations in seasonal patterns among gross domestic product components and strong user preferences for preserving accounting relationships. Furthermore, a partial concurrent update strategy achieves a better balance between accuracy and revision minimization compared to current or fully concurrent methods. Finally, deriving seasonally adjusted price deflators from seasonally adjusted volume and current price data aligns more closely with the underlying economic structure of Armenian QNA, given that QNA data is available primarily in nominal terms. These results remain consistent across various sensitivity checks, supporting our methodological approach for analyzing Armenia's QNA series

Keywords: Armenia; JDemetra+; national accounts; seasonal adjustment; X13-ARIMA-SEATS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C32 C50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2025-06-23
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.adb.org/publications/new-framework-seasonal-adjustment-armenia Full text

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:adbewp:0786

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Orlee Velarde ().