A model for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the Uzbekistan economy

Evgeny Vinokurov, Alexey Kuznetsov, Marina Sobolevskaya and Aigul Berdigulova
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Evgeny Vinokurov: Eurasian Development Bank
Alexey Kuznetsov: Eurasian Development Bank
Marina Sobolevskaya: Eurasian Development Bank
Aigul Berdigulova: Eurasian Development Bank
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Евгений Юрьевич Винокуров

Working Papers from Eurasian Development Bank

Abstract: This report presents the results of the development of a model for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the Uzbekistan economy, created to be integrated into the general system of macroeconomic forecasting and analysis of economic processes in the EDB member countries. More detailed information on the integrated system of models (ISM) is presented in the joint report of the Eurasian Development Bank and the Eurasian Economic Commission (EDB, 2016). Structure of the report: a description of the integration of Uzbekistan’s model into the model complex used by the EDB. The specific economic features of Uzbekistan taken into account in the model are presented. The structure of the model and calibration of parameters are explained. Methodological aspects, analysis of sensitivity of the model to various macroeconomic shocks and its predictive ability are considered.The appendices detail the statistical data with an indication of sources and provide a system of equations.

Keywords: macroeconomic modelling; forecasting; GDP; inflation; exchange rate; demand; monetary policy; budget; transmission mechanism; macroeconomic shocks. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 E27 E32 E52 E58 F37 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 59
Date: 2025-05-21
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