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Civil Unrest in North Africa – Risks for Natural Gas Supply?

Stefan Lochner and Caroline Dieckhoener
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Caroline Dieckhoener: Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln

Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Caroline Löffler ()

No 2011-1, EWI Working Papers from Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)

Abstract: The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not affected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable.

Keywords: Natural gas; security of supply; network modelling; North Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 L95 Q34 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 8 pages
Date: 2011-04-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-ene
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply? (2012) Downloads
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