Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?
Christian Gross () and
David Stern ()
No 11/2013, FCN Working Papers from E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)
We carry out a meta-analysis of the very large literature on testing for Granger causality between energy use and economic output to determine if there is a genuine effect in this literature or whether the large number of apparently significant results is due to publication or misspecification bias. Our model extends the standard meta-regression model for detecting genuine effects in the presence of publication biases using the statistical power trace by controlling for the tendency to over-fit vector autoregression models in small samples. Granger causality tests in these over-fitted models have inflated type I errors. We cannot find a genuine causal effect in the literature as a whole. However, there is a robust genuine effect from output to energy use when energy prices are controlled for.
JEL-codes: C32 C52 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (70) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.fcn.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/global/show_document.asp?id=aaaaaaaaaagvwas Full text (application/pdf)
Journal Article: Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output? (2014)
Working Paper: Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output? (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2013_011
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in FCN Working Papers from E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Hendrik Schmitz ().