Modeling Volatility and Flexibility of Electric Vehicles’ Energy Consumption

Jarusch Muessel (), Oliver Ruhnau () and Reinhard Madlener
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Jarusch Muessel: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Oliver Ruhnau: E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)

No 17/2022, FCN Working Papers from E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)

Abstract: The growing number of electric vehicles (EVs) will challenge the power system, but EVs may also have balancing effects via smart charging. Modeling EVs’ system-level impact while respecting computational constraints requires the aggregation of individual profiles. We show that studies typically rely on too few profiles to accurately model EVs’ system-level impact and that a naïve aggregation of individual profiles leads to an overestimation of the fleet’s flexibility potential. To overcome this, we introduce a scalable and accurate aggregation approach based on the idea to model deviations from an uncontrolled charging strategy as a virtual energy storage unit. We apply this to German mobility statistics and estimate an average flexibility potential of 93 GWh (6.2 kWh/EV), only 10% of the result of a naïve aggregation. We conclude that our approach allows for a more realistic representation of EVs in energy system models and may be applied to other flexible assets.

Keywords: electric vehicles; demand-side flexibility; aggregation; representativity; After Diversity Maximum Demand; energy system modeling; virtual energy storage unit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A12 C02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
Date: 2022-11-01, Revised 2023-05-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2022_017

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