중국경제 중장기 성장 전망과 성장구조 변화에 대한 연구(A Study on China’s Medium to Long-term Growth Prospects and Changes in Growth Structure)

Jiyoung Moon, Hayoon Song, Hongwon Kim, Jiwon Choi and Ko-Un Cho
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Jiyoung Moon: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Hayoon Song: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Hongwon Kim: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Jiwon Choi: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Ko-Un Cho: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)

No 25-12, Policy Analyses from Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Abstract: 개혁개방 이후, 중국경제는 여러 차례의 경기 상승과 하락을 반복하면서도 지속적으로 고속 성장의 과정을 겪었다. 2007년을 기점으로 지속적인 경제성장률 감소를 보이고 있지만, 상당히 오랜 기간 안정적이며 예측 가능한 감소세를 유지하여 왔으며, 중국정부가 제시하는 목표치를 상회하는 성장률을 기록하였다. 하지만 최근 중국경제의 성장세는 새로운 분기점을 맞이하였다. 대내외적인 경제 하방압력과 불확실성으로 중국경제 성장률이 5% 전후로 바뀌었으며, 중국이 대면하고 있는 대내외적 경제 하방요인이 단기 요인보다는 장기 요인으로 평가되면서 이러한 경제성장 하락에 대한 평가가 ‘전망’에서 ‘우려’로 변화하는 양상을 보인다. Since the reform and opening-up period, China’s economy has experienced sustained rapid growth despite repeated cycles of expansion and contraction. Although growth rates have steadily declined since 2007, this slowdown remained stable and predictable for a considerable period, consistently exceeding government targets. Recently, however, China’s economic growth appears to have reached a new turning point. Mounting domestic pressures and external uncertainties have pushed its growth to around 5%, and as these challenges are increasingly perceived as structural rather than cyclical, assessments of China’s slowdown have shifted from “prospects” to “concerns.”

Keywords: China’s Medium to Long-term Growth; Growth Structure; Economic growth; Economic outlook (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 308
Date: 2025-12-30
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