아베노믹스 성장전략의 이행 성과와 과제 (A Study on Abenomics Growth Strategy in Japan)

Gyupan Kim (), Hyong-Kun Lee (), Seung-Hyun Kim () and JungEun Lee ()
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Gyupan Kim: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
Hyong-Kun Lee: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
Seung-Hyun Kim: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
JungEun Lee: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

No 16-10, Policy Analyses from Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Abstract: Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 아베노믹스의 성장전략이 법제화를 거쳐 상당부분 구조개혁을 수반할 것으로 예상되면서, 지금까지 아베 내각이 추진한 성장전략 전반을 개관한 다음, 성장전략 관련 시책 가운데 사업재편, 기업지배구조 개혁, 제4차 산업혁명, 노동시장 개혁 등 4가지 정책이슈를 중심으로 성장전략의 이행 성과와 과제를 점검하였다. English Abstract: More than 20 years have passed since Japan entered a recession in the mid-1990s, with the bubble burst and changes in the population structure-low birth rate and aging population-acting as catalysts. It is true that Abenomics did manage to stimulate some growth in the Japanese economy, which had continued on a downward trend especially after the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake; however, Japan's nominal GDP in 2015 is still a meager 500 trillion yen, significantly lower than its GDP of 521 trillion yen in 1997, demonstrating the necessity for large-scale structural reform. Japan's potential growth rate also illustrates something along the same line. Japan's potential growth rate reached 4.9% in the late 1980s, and then plummeted to around 2% in 1992 after the bubble burst. In 1994, the figure halved to around 1%, and in 1997, to around 0%. In 2015, it was a mere 0.3%, showing that indeed something more than the hitherto practiced expansive fiscal policy and quantitative easing (QE) is required. Thus, this research presumes that the Abenomics growth strategy will accompany structural reform, using legalization as the tool. We first present a general overview of the Abe administration's growth strategy, then examine its results and challenges, focusing on the four policy issues of business restructuring, corporate governance reform, the 4th industrial revolution, and employment/labor market reform. This research's final aim is to present policy implications for the Korean government, considering the policy agendas the Korean government is currently facing, such as expanding the private investment, labor market reform, structural reform, the 4th industrial revolution, etc.

Pages: 254 pages
Date: 2016-12-30
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