미국 통화정책의 국제전이: 뉴스와 노이즈 효과 분석을 중심으로(International Transmission of US Monetary Policy: Role of News and Noise Information)

Kyunghun Kim () and Wongi Kim ()
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Kyunghun Kim: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, Postal: Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, 370, Sicheong-daero, Sejong-si,Korea, http://www.kiep.go.kr/index.do
Wongi Kim: CHONNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, Postal: 77, Yongbong-ro, Buk-gu, Gwangju, 61186, Korea, http://www.jnu.ac.kr/jnumain.aspx

No 19-1, Policy Analyses from Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Abstract: 미래 통화정책에 대한 기대는 현재 경기변동에 영향을 미친다. 통화정책에 대한 기대를 형성하는 데 바탕이 되는 정보는 뉴스(news)와 노이즈(noise)로 구성되어 있다. ‘뉴스’는 향후 실제로 실현되는 통화정책 변화와 관련된 정보인 반면, ‘노이즈’는 향후 통화정책으로 실현되지는 않으나 어떠한 이유에서인지 현재 시장에서 관련이 있다고 믿는 정보를 의미한다. 통화정책이 실현되기 이전까지는 두 정보의 구분이 어렵기 때문에 현실적으로 노이즈 정보에 경기가 반응할 가능성이 존재한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 미국 통화정책에 대한 기대를 형성하는 데 반영되는 뉴스와 노이즈 정보가 주변 신흥국의 실물 및 금융시장에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 분석하였다. Expectation on future monetary policy formed based on the information affect current business cycle. Firms that determine investment projects and households that optimize life-time consumption and savings consider changes in future interest rates as well as current interest rates in their decision making. In the real economy, however, there is a mixture of noise in the information that forms the expectations for future interest rate changes. Noise information represents information that is not actually realized in the future, but believed to do so now for whatever reasons. The corresponding news information is information related to changes in monetary policy actually realized in the future. Until the monetary policy is realized, it is difficult to distinguish between two types of information.

Keywords: 통화정책; 뉴스; 노이즈; 국제전이 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 87 pages
Date: 2019-06-30
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