내국인 해외증권투자 확대가 외환시장에 미치는 영향(The Impact of the Residents’ Foreign Portfolio Investments on Foreign Exchange Market)

Tae Soo Kang (), Young Sik Jeong (), Kyunghun Kim () and Eunjung Kang ()
Additional contact information
Tae Soo Kang: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, Postal: Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, 370, Sicheong-daero, Sejong-si,Korea, http://www.kiep.go.kr/index.do#
Young Sik Jeong: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, Postal: Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, 370, Sicheong-daero, Sejong-si,Korea, http://www.kiep.go.kr/index.do#
Kyunghun Kim: HONGIK UNIVERSITY, Postal: 94, Wausan-ro, Mapo-gu, Seoul, 04066, Korea, http://www.hongik.ac.kr/index.do
Eunjung Kang: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, Postal: Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, 370, Sicheong-daero, Sejong-si,Korea, http://www.kiep.go.kr/index.do#

No 19-10, Policy Analyses from Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Abstract: 2011년 이후 우리나라에서 거주자의 해외투자가 주식 및 채권을 중심으로 가파르게 증가하고 있다. 2010년경 1,000억 달러 수준이던 거주자 해외증권 투자는 2019년 3월 말 현재 4,984억 달러로 급증하였다. 이러한 추세는 거시경제 여건(저금리, 은퇴 대비 저축 확대 등), 정부정책 변화(해외투자 활성화, 해외투자 관련 규제 완화 등), 제도 변화(보험업종에서의 IFRS 도입 등)로 향후에도 지속될 전망이다. 이는 여러 경로를 통해 대외충격에 민감한 우리나라 금융시장에 다양한 영향을 미칠 것이다. 특히 외환ㆍ외화자금시장과 단기외채 등 대외부문 거시건전성(macro-prudential)에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 높아 그 영향을 분석하고 리스크에 대해서는 미리 대비책을 마련할 필요가 있다. 그래서 본 연구는 거주자의 해외증권투자가 스왑레이트(swap rate) 및 환율에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증분석, 과거 국내 해외증권투자 확대 시기의 사례분석 및 금융회사 전문가 심층 인터뷰를 통해 외환 및 외화자금시장 안정화 방안을 위한 정책적 시사점을 제시하고자 한다. Since 2011, the overseas financial investment of residents in Korea has been increasing rapidly, mainly in stocks and bonds. Residents‘ portfolio investment, which was about 100 billion USD in 2010, has surged to 498 billion USD as of end-March 2019. This trend is expected to continue in the future due to macroeconomic conditions (low interest rates, expansion of savings over retirement), changes in government policies (activation of foreign investment, deregulation related to overseas investment), and institutional changes (introduction of IFRS in the insurance industry). This will have an influence on the Korean financial market through various channels. In particular, it is likely to affect the FX market, FX money market and the external macro-prudential elements such as short term external debt, meaning it will be necessary to analyze these effects and prepare for risks in advance. Therefore, this study is aimed at presenting policy implications for stabilizing the FX market and FX money market through empirical analysis, comparative analysis of the past and recent expansion period of overseas portfolio investment, and in-depth interviews with financial experts.

Keywords: 내국인 해외증권투자; 외국인 증권투자; 자본유출입; 금융안정 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 123 pages
Date: 2019-12-30
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