환율과 경상수지의 구조적 변화와 정책방향 (Structural Factors Behind Foreign Exchange Rate and Current Account Balances and Policy Directions)

Minsoo Han (), Sungbae An (), Hyosang Kim (), Subin Kim (), Jinhee Lee (), Soyoung Kim and Ju Hyun Pyun ()
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Minsoo Han: KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP), Postal: [30147] , Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, , 370, Sicheong-daero, , Sejong-si, Korea, https://www.kiep.go.kr/eng/
Sungbae An: KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP), Postal: [30147] , Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, , 370, Sicheong-daero, , Sejong-si, Korea, https://www.kiep.go.kr/eng/
Hyosang Kim: KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP), Postal: [30147] , Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, , 370, Sicheong-daero, , Sejong-si, Korea, https://www.kiep.go.kr/eng/
Subin Kim: KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP), Postal: [30147] , Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, , 370, Sicheong-daero, , Sejong-si, Korea, https://www.kiep.go.kr/eng/
Jinhee Lee: KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP), Postal: [30147] , Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, , 370, Sicheong-daero, , Sejong-si, Korea, https://www.kiep.go.kr/eng/
Ju Hyun Pyun: Korea University Business School (KUBS), Postal: [02841] Business School, 145, Anam-Ro, Seongbuk-Gu, Seoul, Korea, https://biz.korea.ac.kr/main/main.html

No 20-17, Policy Analyses from Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Abstract: 본 연구의 주요 목적은 원화 약세 시 평가절상 압박에 대해서 실증적인 근거와 대응논리를 제공하는 것이다. 이를 위해서 외환시장 개입정책이 환율을 장기적으로 변화시킬 수 있는지 살펴보았으며, 경상수지와 환율에 구조적으로 영향을 주는 결정요인도 실증적으로 분석하였다. 한편 코로나19 이후 중국경제의 빠른 회복세와 미 달러화 약세에 대한 기대 등은 우리 원화의 강세 압력으로 이어질 가능성이 높다. 원화 강세가 지속될 것으로 예상되는 최근의 상황을 감안하여 환율이 우리 수출경쟁력에 미치는 영향력을 점검하고 수출경쟁력 강화를 위한 정책방향을 제시하였다. The goal of this study is twofold. On the one hand, when the Korean won is weak, we provide an empirical basis and response logic to the pressure of appreciation. On the other hand, when the won is strong, we analyze the effect of the exchange rate on the competitiveness of Korean exporting firms, thereby providing relevant policy directions. Korea’s current account has generally maintained a surplus since 2000. However, the current account surplus did not immediately lead to an increase in net foreign assets. Indeed, Korea has become a net foreign asset country only since 2014. Korea's continuous current account surplus and investment in safe but low-return foreign assets can be attributed to the rational choice of Korean investors who take into account that Korea has traditionally been a country with certain characteristics (e.g. the absence of a key currency, relatively less developed domestic financial market, and low accessibility to the international financial market). (the rest omitted)

Keywords: foreign exchange rate; current account; policy; surplus; net foreign assets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 178 pages
Date: 2020-12-30
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