영-미 사례를 통한 미-중 패권 전환 가능성 분석: 무역, 금융, 안보, 다자주의를 중심으로(Analyzing the Prospects of U.S.-China Hegemonic Shift: Insights from Anglo-American Perspectives on Trade, Finance, Security, and Multilateralism)

Ihn-Hwi Park (), Yong Sub Choi (), Hyo Won Lee (), Wang Hwi Lee (), Hanbeom Jeong (), Sung Chul Jung () and Kyong Jun Choi ()
Additional contact information
Ihn-Hwi Park: Ewha Womans University, Postal: 52, Ewhayeodae-gil, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03760 Republic of Korea, https://www.ewha.ac.kr/ewhaen/index.do
Yong Sub Choi: SUN MOON University, Postal: 70, Sunmoon-ro 221 beon-gil, Tangjeong-myeon, Asan-si, Chungcheongnam-do, Korea, 31460, https://lily.sunmoon.ac.kr/Page2/About/About01_01.aspx
Hyo Won Lee: INCHEON NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, Postal: (Songdo-dong) 119 Academy-ro Yeonsu-gu, Incheon Republic of Korea, https://www.inu.ac.kr/sites/inuengl/index.do?epTicket=LOG
Wang Hwi Lee: Ajou University, Postal: , Privacy Policy Sitemap, Ajou University, 206, World cup-ro, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon-si, Gyeonggi-do, 16499, Republic of Korea,, https://www.ajou.ac.kr/en/index.do
Hanbeom Jeong: Korea National Defense University, Postal: "Nonsan Campus : 33021 1040, Hwangsanbul-ro, Yangchon-myeon, Nonsan-si, Chungcheongnam-do, Korea , Seoul Campus : 04353 54-99, Duteopbawi-ro, Yongsan-gu, Seoul, Korea",, https://www.kndu.ac.kr/eng/index.do
Sung Chul Jung: MYONGJI University, Postal: Social Science Campus 34 Geobukgol-ro Seodaemun-gu Seoul 03674 KOREA 116 Myongji-ro Cheoin-gu Yongin-si Gyeonggi-do 17058 KOREA,, https://www.mju.ac.kr/us/index..do
Kyong Jun Choi: KONKUK University, Postal: 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 05029, Korea

No 23-29, Policy Analyses from Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Abstract: 본 연구는 과거 영국과 미국이 주도했던 국제질서 변화 분석을 통해 미중간 패권국가 지위 변동 및 국제질서 변화 가능성을 전망했다. 무역, 금융, 군사력, 다자주의 등 4개 영역에 대한 연구 결과, 미래에 중국이 미국을 대체하여 패권국이 되거나 혹은 미국보다 더 큰 영향력을 행사할 가능성은 현재로서는 매우 희박해 보인다. 무역의 경우 많은 국가들이 자유주의 질서하에서 이익 극대화를 추구하고 있으며, 금융 영역에서도 중국은 글로벌 기축통화 지위를 위한 여건을 아직 갖추지 못했거나 나아가서 자체적으로 거부하고 있다. 군사력은 경제력, 운용 능력, 조직력, 해외기지 운용 역량, 첨단기술 등 여러 요소들의 총합인데, 총력 기준으로 중국은 미국에 비해 상당히 뒤처져 있다. 다만 다자주의의 경우 다양한 구심력을 중심으로 국제질서가 재편되는 과정에서, 미국과 중국 간 자국 중심의 다자주의 국제질서 구축전이 치열해질 전망이다. (There has been extensive research on the possibility of the change of the hegemonic leadership between the U.S. and China. When we take a look back the history of the modern international relations, we can recognize that there have been specific leader countries who played leadership roles within each international structural stage. This means the previous experience of the leadership change between the U.K. and the U.S. should tell us some meaningful lessons to prospect the possibility of the leadership change between the U.S. and China. The research starts from this research question. Simply speaking, it is impossible for China to play the role of the U.S. in the areas of ① trade, ② global finance, ③ military security, and ④ multilateralism. Firstly in trade, most of the nations in the current international society pursue to maximize there national interests with the current liberal international trade order. Most of the nations never understand China should play a role to initiate the future international trade order in terms of value, institutions, leadership, and followership even with the many structural problems of the current trade order. Secondly, China, in particular, has not prepared a global financial leadership in the perspective of ‘gold-standard system’ which is one of the most critical preconditions for the global financial leadership. It is also interesting to know that the total volume of the US dollar in the global financial market has been smaller than before, and the same time the portion of the Euro and the Yen got larger, not the Chinese currency. (the rest omitted)

Keywords: International politics; political economy; US-China hegemony; trade; finance; security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 217 pages
Date: 2024-04-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-inv
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