Nowcasting Korean Industrial Production

Sungkyung Lee () and Sung Keun Park ()
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Sungkyung Lee: Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, Postal: Sejong National Research Complex, Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, 370 Sicheong Dae-ro C-dong 8-12F 30147, Republic of Korea, http://www.kiet.re.kr
Sung Keun Park: Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, Postal: Sejong National Research Complex, Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, 370 Sicheong Dae-ro C-dong 8-12F 30147, Republic of Korea, http://www.kiet.re.kr

No 22-3, Industrial Economic Review from Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade

Abstract: Since most official estimates of major macroeconomic variables that market participants and policy makers keenly monitor in real time come out with significant publication lags, nowcasting literature especially targeted on key macro variables has trended over the recent years. Nowcasting refers to forecast present values of monthly or quarterly variables by distilling information from big data in real time. Hence, nowcasting is regarded to be a data-driven approach with fewer subjective choices on model specifications involved along the way. In this study, we attempt to nowcast Korean industrial production index adopting the Bok et al. (2018)’s methodology. Industrial production index is also one of real variables to be frequently referred to if one is to get the grasp of current industrial activities. We come up with a systemized framework for nowcasting the industrial production index and found that real variables, such as electricity sales and exports, can be of a great help to track the real-time movements of industrial activities.

Keywords: nowcasting; production forecasting; electricity sales; Korea; industrial production index; industrial production forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E23 L11 M11 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 8 pages
Date: 2022-01-01
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