A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of the 2022 Russia–Ukraine Conflict and Its Implications for SDG 7 in Europe

Mazen Diwani, Al Mamun and Sherif Hassan
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Mazen Diwani: Faculty of Social Science, Northeastern University, London (UK)
Al Mamun: Center for Policy and Economic Research (CPER), Dhaka (Bangladesch)
Sherif Hassan: M&S Research Hub

No 24, MSR Working Papers from M&S Research Hub institute

Abstract: European energy markets experienced unprecedented disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, exposing long-standing structural vulnerabilities in fossil fuel–dependent systems and threatening progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). This study provides a causal analysis of the conflict’s immediate impact on European energy markets using a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) that leverages the sharp temporal cutoff created by the invasion. Drawing on monthly data for 25 European countries from 2019–2024, we examine four core outcomes: natural gas import volumes, crude oil import volumes, Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas prices, and wholesale electricity prices. Our findings reveal significant supply-side adjustments following the conflict, with natural gas and crude oil imports exhibiting heterogeneous responses depending on pre-war Russian dependency levels. Price dynamics show pronounced but short-lived spikes in TTF gas prices, while electricity market responses are more ambiguous due to bandwidth sensitivity. The results provide empirical evidence of how European energy systems absorbed an exogenous geopolitical shock, highlighting the interplay between supply diversification, market integration, and vulnerability to price volatility. The study contributes to the literature on energy security under geopolitical stress and offers policy-relevant insights into resilience strategies needed to uphold SDG 7 targets during crises.

Keywords: Russia–Ukraine Conflict; Energy Security; Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD); Geopolitical Supply Shocks; European Energy Markets; SDG 7; Sustainability; Market Resilience (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24
Date: 2025-12-01
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