Building Weaknesses and Revealing Structural Constraints: Systemic Characterization of Brazilian Regional Resilience

Gabriel Marcos Arcanjo, Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli, Vinicius Vale and Douglas Silveira
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Gabriel Marcos Arcanjo: Department of Economics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil
Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli: Department of Economics, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Brazil
Vinicius Vale: Department of Economics, Federal University of Paraná, Brazil

No 09-2025, TD NEREUS from Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS)

Abstract: To understand how different regions withstand increasingly frequent exogenous shocks, we analyze regional resilience in Brazil, motivated by persistent structural inequalities and frequent exposure to such shocks. Using interregional input-output matrices for 2011 and 2019, we adopt an ex ante approach, simulating scenarios that stress the productive structure to evaluate regional responses. These results are integrated with network analysis and machine learning techniques to classify degrees of regional resilience. Resilience is highest in the South and Southeast, particularly São Paulo, and lowest in the North and Northeast. This pattern is associated with the concentration of activities with limited diffusion to less resilient regions, which exhibit growth and specialization in primary activities, along with dependence on services weakly integrated into production chains. Overall, resilience remains largely stable, highlighting structural barriers that hinder transformation and are not easily overcome spontaneously over time.

Keywords: Regional Resilience; Input-Output; Network Analysis; Machine Learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C67 O40 R10 R15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:nereus:021497

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