A Price Ceiling and the Reallocation of Housing Supply: Evidence from Brazil’s Minha Casa Minha Vida

Samuel Bícego and André Chagas
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Samuel Bícego: Department of Economics, University of São Paulo

No 11-2026, TD NEREUS from Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS)

Abstract: We examine how the price ceiling in Brazil’s Minha Casa Minha Vida program relates to the composition of new housing supply. Combining administrative records with dwelling-level launch data, we construct a continuous measure of similarity to projects contracted under the program. After 2009, supply below the applicable ceiling became substantially more concentrated in MCMV-oriented dwelling types, and this differential persisted across subsequent ceiling revisions. The pattern is robust to alternative score constructions and classification cutoffs. By contrast, the flatter score-price gradient below the ceiling predates the program. The evidence is consistent with supply reorganization toward the eligible segment.

Keywords: Housing prices; Price ceilings; Housing subsidies; Market segmentation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R21 R31 R38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:nereus:023115

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