Public Health Trade-Offs During a Pandemic: Mobility Decline and Hypertension Risk in Indialoven

Arpita Khanna and Tomoki Fujii
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Arpita Khanna: Asia Competitiveness Institute, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
Tomoki Fujii: School of Economics, Singapore Management University

No 11-2025, Economics and Statistics Working Papers from Singapore Management University, School of Economics

Abstract: The Covid pandemic dramatically altered patterns of daily life, particularly through widespread declines in mobility due to lockdowns and social distancing measures. While the economic and epidemiological effects of these restrictions have been widely studied, their broader health implications remain underexplored. This paper investigates the relationship between mobility decline during the Covid pandemic and hypertension outcomes in India. Leveraging district-level variation in mobility from Google Community Mobility Reports and health data from the 2019–2021 Indian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), we find that a 1 percentage point reduction in mobility over the 30 days prior to interview is associated with a 0.3 percentage point decrease in the likelihood of having normal blood pressure. The effect is driven by increases in pre-hypertensive and mildly elevated blood pressure, with no significant changes in more severe hypertension. We examine potential mechanisms—healthcare access, stress (proxied by alcohol use), and reduced physical activity—and find limited explanatory power for the former two. These findings suggest that reduced physical mobility likely played a key role in worsening cardiovascular risk profiles. The results underscore the importance of integrating chronic disease considerations into the design of mobility-restricting public health interventions.

Pages: 20
Date: 2025-12-09
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