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The Potential Impacts of COVID-19 on the Global Value Chains: GVC Positioning and Linkages

Gerald Foong () and Pao-Li Chang ()
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Gerald Foong: Ministry of Trade and Industry
Pao-Li Chang: School of Economics, Singapore Management University

No 24-2020, Economics and Statistics Working Papers from Singapore Management University, School of Economics

Abstract: Apart from the public health crisis entailed by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it has also propagated a pandemic-induced economic shock globally. One transmission channel is via the inter-country linkages arising from the trade in intermediate inputs, which is a pertinent characteristic of global value chains (GVCs), and resulting in a "supply-chain contagion" as termed by Baldwin and Tomiura (2020). In this paper, we propose measures of bilteral downstreamness and upstreamness, the extent of a country's GVC participation, and the position of a country in GVCs by leveraging upon the gross export decomposition framework as laid out by Borin and Mancini (2019), which builds upon the work done by Koopman et al. (2014). By applying a regional lens to our analysis, we also identify key intermediary nodes that intermediate GVC-related ows within their region and across regions. Through this, we investigate the trade linkages of countries and discuss the potential impact of COVID-19 on GVCs.

Keywords: COVID-19; global value chain (GVC); gross export decomposition; GVC position; upstream/downstream trade partners (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 100 pages
Date: 2020-11-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-sea and nep-tid
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