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Forecasting U.S. Housing Starts Under Asymmetric Loss

Christian Pierdzioch, Jan-Christoph Rülke () and Georg Stadtmann ()
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Jan-Christoph Rülke: WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management,, Postal: Department of Economics, WHU – Otto Beisheim, School of Management,, Burgplatz 2, 56179 Vallendar, Germany
Georg Stadtmann: Europa-Universität Viadrina, Postal: Europa-Universität Viadrina, Department of Economics, P.O.B. 1786, 15207 Frankfurt (Oder), Germany

No 118/2012, Working Paper from Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg

Abstract: Survey data of forecasts of the housing market may provide a particularly rich data nvironment for researchers and policymakers to study developments in housing markets. Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125, 2005), we studied the properties of a large set of survey data of housing starts in the United States. We document the heterogeneity of forecasts, analyze the shape of forecasters’ loss function, study the rationality of forecasts, and the temporal variation in forecasts.

Keywords: Housing starts; Loss function; Rationality of forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2012-06-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-upt and nep-ure
Note: Housing starts; Loss function; Rationality of forecasts
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