A critique of the Richardson equations

Klaus Beckmann, Susan Gattke (), Anja Lechner () and Lennart Reimer ()
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Susan Gattke: Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, Postal: Holstenhofweg 85, 22043 Hamburg
Anja Lechner: Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, Postal: Holstenhofweg 85, 22043 Hamburg
Lennart Reimer: Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, Postal: Holstenhofweg 85, 22043 Hamburg

No 162/2016, Working Paper from Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg

Abstract: We review, and extend, one of the classic dynamic models of conflict in economics by Richardson (1919) and Boulding (1962). Restrictions on parameters are relaxed to account for alliances and for peace-keeping, yielding new dynamic patterns of conflict. In addition, we explore an incrementalist version of the model as well as a stochastic one and show how this affects its theoretical stability properties. Using Monte Carlo techniques as well as time series analyses based on GDELT data (for the Ethiopian-Eritreian war, 1998-2000), we also assess the empirical usefulness of the model. It turns out that the simulations fail to converge in a large number of cases, and that one important prediction of the model is not borne out by the data. We therefore conclude that the Boulding-Richardson equations are of limited use for modelling (de-)escalation in dynamic conflict.

Keywords: Conflict dynamicy; patterns of conflict; GDELT; time series; differential equations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B25 D74 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2016-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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