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POST – CRISIS TRENDS IN EMPLOZMENT IN ROMANIA AND THE IMPACT ON POTENTIAL GROWTH

Prof.Ion Ghizdeanu () and Dana Ioana Ţapu ()
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Prof.Ion Ghizdeanu: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy
Dana Ioana Ţapu: Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy

Institute for Economic Forecasting Conference Proceedings from Institute for Economic Forecasting

Abstract: Labour force was more affected by the crisis than other categories of the population and even than the capital. The crisis has led to serious and visible effects on European society and economy. Social protection systems have mitigated some of the impact, but the target groups were the disadvantaged categories and the elderly. Measures to support capital (European Economic Recovery Plan, Junker Plan, etc) have not put restrictions regarding the effectiveness and productivity; on the contrary, they favoured restructuring and technological upgrading with effects on employment in the European area. As a result, unemployment has become the main challenge for European countries. Even today, almost 22 million people are unemployed in the European Union, of which 10 million are in this situation for more than a year4. If in 2008, on overall EU, the employment rate of labour between 26-64 years was 69%, being an achievable objective, the one undertaken by the 2020 European Strategy in 2012 approached 68%. Only in 2014 the employment level returned to pre-crisis level. Average annual reduction of employment in the period 2009-2013 was on the whole EU-28 of 0.6%, given that the average annual rate in the last 10 years before the crisis was strongly positive, of 1% respectively. In this extremely unfriendly European context for labour market, Romania has registered developments, that most often diverge from European trends, developments that apparently favoured better utilization of labour resources. After the crisis unemployment in Romania was kept relatively low, well below the European average and the employment rate of labour force aged between 20 and 64 years has increased from 63% in 2009 to 66% in 2015. At the same time, however, part-time employment was extended, representing a positive phenomenon from the perspective of capital, but with negative implications on economic growth potentials. Labour productivity has improved, which has fade the impact of declining employment on potential gross domestic product. Comparative analyze with the situation in developed countries shows that, overall, the economic crisis has reduced the contribution of labour to potential growth.

Keywords: number of employees; hours worked; employment; potential GDP; total factors productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 J21 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11 pages
Date: 2016-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-tra
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