THE SEASONAL FACTOR IMPACT ON THE INFLATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA
Ion Partachi () and
Vitalie Motelica ()
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Ion Partachi: Academia de Studii Economice, Chișinău, Republica Moldova,
Vitalie Motelica: Academia de Studii Economice, Chișinău, Republica Moldova,
Institute for Economic Forecasting Conference Proceedings from Institute for Economic Forecasting
Implementing effective inflation targeting strategy requires the knowledge of all the factors that are responsible for the inflationary process. The consumer price index includes sub-components, such as trend or seasonality that makes it difficult to analyze the inflationary pressures for the monetary policy decision making. The annual inflation indicator eliminates these deficiencies to a certain extent. However, in the decision making process and for communication purposes, monthly inflation is used as well which, first must be seasonally adjusted to provide information relevant for monetary policy. In this study we addressed the seasonality issues for both CPI, and for the main sub-components of this indicator in Moldova to track the sources responsible for seasonal fluctuations. The study established that the seasonal factor has moderate positive values in the first 4 months of the year, then in the summer months it becomes negative. During the fall and in December, the seasonal factor is back in positive territory. Furthermore, the largest impact on seasonal fluctuations is determined by the seasonal factor of food prices.
Keywords: Seasonal factors; CPI inflation; monetary policy; inflation targeting strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-tra
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:wpconf:161104
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