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INVESTIŢIILE STRĂINE DIRECTE ŞI CRIZA ECONOMICĂ RECENTĂ

Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu)

Institute for Economic Forecasting Conference Proceedings from Institute for Economic Forecasting

Abstract: The analysis of foreign direct investment in crisis period is necessary in order to state the prerequisites for economic recovery. A movering average model of order 1 was proposed for foreign direct investment (FDI) stock inwards growth in Romania, which is in accordance with the expectations when many shocks appear in crisis period. However, an autoregressive behaviour was not discovered. There is a bilateral causality between FDI growth and real GDP in second difference for a level of significance of 5%. According to the Bayesian regression model, in the period after the crisis beginning, the real GDP growth in Romania from an year to another generated an increase in FDI while the decrease in real GDP determined a lower FDI. This result confirmed the previous conclusions from literature that foreign investors in Romania follow the economic growth of this coutry.

Keywords: foreign direct investment; moving average; Granger causaity; Bayesian model. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F21 C51 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-tra
Date: 2016-11
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