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Analysis and Forecast of Romania’s Population Ageing by Non-Linear Methods

Mariana Nicolae-Balan () and Brindusa Radu

Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting from Institute for Economic Forecasting

Abstract: Demographic ageing of population turned lately into an extremely sensible issue, even thorny at times, and with deep impact on all generations and on most fields of economic activity. Romania, like all other European countries, is faced currently with demographic decrease. Demographic changes in the next decades are susceptible of having significant impact on the development of the Romanian economy. Population ageing, as a whole, affects negatively the GDP increase, by diminishing factor entries. At the same time, this phenomenon has negative impact also on GDP per capita, in particular for the future, mainly because of the decline in the employed population segment. In this context, knowing about the future evolution of the population plays a determinant role in adopting the measures and policies of economic growth. The paper intends in this stage of research to analyse and forecast Romania’s population ageing by using non-linear models.

Keywords: population ageing; indicators of natural population movement; non-linear models; forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E20 E27 J10 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2015-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-for, nep-hea and nep-mac
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