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Foreign Exchange Market Interventions and the $-¥ Exchange Rate in the Long Run*

Joscha Beckmann (), Ansgar Belke and Michael Kuehl
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Michael Kühl ()

No 201307, ROME Working Papers from ROME Network

Abstract: This paper tries to clarify the question of whether foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Bank of Japan are important for the dollar-yen exchange rate in the long run. Our strategy relies on a re-examination of the empirical performance of a monetary exchange rate model. This is basically not a new topic; however, we put our focus on two new questions. Firstly, does the consideration of periods of massive interventions in the foreign exchange market help to uncover a potential long-run relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals? Secondly, do Forex interventions support the adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium value? Our overall results suggest that taking periods of interventions into account within a monetary model does improve the goodness of fit of an identified longrun relationship to a significant degree. Furthermore, Forex interventions increase the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium in some periods, particularly in periods of coordinated forex interventions. Our results indicate that only coordinated interventions seem to stabilize the dollar-yen exchange rate in a long-run perspective. This is a novel contribution to the literature.

Keywords: Structural exchange rate models; cointegration; intervention analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 F31 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2013-07
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http://www.rome-net.org/RePEc/rmn/wpaper/rome-wp-2013-07.pdf First version, 2013 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Foreign exchange market interventions and the $-¥ exchange rate in the long run (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Foreign Exchange Market Interventions and the $-¥ Exchange Rate in the Long-Run (2013) Downloads
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