Methods of Long-term Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and Foreign Experience of Applying

Vera Bodrova (), Gvozdeva Margarita and Maria Kazakova
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Vera Bodrova: Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)

Published Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: This paper examines the existing methods of long-term forecasting of macroeconomic indicators and analyzes the concept and theoretical basis of long-term fiscal sustainability of the country. In particular, we show that the planning and forecasting cover all aspects of socio-economic systems throughout the world's history. It is also noted that the analysis of current indicators of fiscal sustainability, such as budget deficits and public debt, are not enough for a full assessment of sustainability, since such figures do not take into account the implicit liabilities of the budget that may arise in the future. This requires a long-term forecast of socio-economic development of the country, based on internationally accepted methods of forecasting.

Keywords: forecasting; prediction; socio-economic development; fiscal sustainability; macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 74 pages
Date: 2015-03-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:ppaper:2310

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