Analysis of Approaches to Studying the Problem of Long-Term Stagnation in Modern Economies

Анализ подходов к изучению проблемы долговременной стагнации в современных экономиках

Pavel Trunin, Alexandra Bozhechkova, Diana Petrova, Chaikina, Anastasiia (Чайкина, Анастасия) () and Nikanorov, Ivan (Никаноров, Иван) ()
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Chaikina, Anastasiia (Чайкина, Анастасия): Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Nikanorov, Ivan (Никаноров, Иван): Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: In this paper we study the factors and mechanisms of secular stagnation in modern economies, revealing the degree of their influence on the dynamics of productivity and the rates of economic growth. In the first section we present the main theoretical approaches to modeling secular stagnation, key factors of stagnation, including negative demographic trends, income inequality, slowing down of human capital growth and technical progress, etc. In the second section we make review of the empirical literature, devoted to the calibration of theoretical models or econometric estimates of the degree of influence of secular stagnation factors on output dynamics. In the third section we present the results of the case-study analysis of the international experience of secular stagnation in the example of Japan, the USA and the Eurozone, we find out general and specific factors that contribute to the implementation of the secular braking scenario in these countries.

Pages: 110 pages
Date: 2018-03
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