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Illegal Re-Export and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Russian Food Embargo in 2014

Незаконный реэкспорт и анализ эффективности российского продовольственного эмбарго 2014 года

Alexander Firanchuk

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: The tasks of this work are: to formulate theoretical hypotheses about the factors influencing the probability of re-export occurrence; the provision of descriptive statistics that may serve as evidence for the existence of such re-exports; and the construction of an econometric model for evaluating the proposed theoretical hypotheses. In addition, we will pay attention to the statistics of trade in Russia, the main changes and the most probable cases of re-export of goods. In the framework of this work, an analysis was made of the effectiveness of the Russian food embargo, introduced in August 2014. Under the effectiveness of sanctions, we understand the extent to which they have limited the supply of goods to Russia that have fallen under the embargo. In the course of the study, a statistical analysis of the COMTRADE trade data was carried out, which resulted in the identification of a number of indirect signs of the re-export to Russia of goods banned by the food embargo. Suspicions for the re-export of sanctioned products in the period 2014-2015 most often fall on the partner countries of Russia in the Eurasian Economic Union - Belarus and Kazakhstan. Also, suspicions of the presence of re-exports can be found in the statistics of trade of Serbia, Macedonia and Turkey.

Pages: 59 pages
Date: 2017-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-cwa, nep-int and nep-tra
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