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The Russian Food Embargo, its Impact on Food Imports, and the Role of Third Countries in Violating the Embargo (Re-Export)

Российское продуктовое эмбарго, его влияние на импорт продовольственных товаров, и роль третьих стран в нарушении эмбарго (реэкспорт)

Alexander Firanchuk

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: The task of this work is to formulate theoretical hypotheses about the factors influencing the probability of re-export occurrence, the provision of descriptive statistics that may be indicative of the existence of such re-exports, and the construction of an econometric model for evaluating the proposed theoretical hypotheses. In addition, the analysis of trade statistics of Russia, the main changes and the most likely cases of illegal re-export of sanctions goods were carried out. To analyze the completeness of the implementation of the embargo, a comparison is made between the EU monthly data on exports and the data of the FCS of Russia on imports. The authors proposed a method for identifying countries involved in re-export activity and an algorithm for identifying specific commodity positions and periods when re-exports were likely. The idea of ??this method is to compare the physical (weight) volumes and prices of EU goods to a third country and the same goods (commodity groups) from that third country to Russia. It was shown that mainly re-exports pass through the territories of Belarus and the Balkan countries (Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina), which is consistent with the results using annual trade data, [1]. Also, the distribution of the value of the identified re-exports in time and the price increase, probably caused by it, are presented. Based on these data, the losses of importing firms are estimated as an increase in the price of re-export goods, which is due to the ban on direct supplies.

Pages: 68 pages
Date: 2018-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-int and nep-tra
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