Methodological Approaches to the Construction of a Medium-Term Forecast of the Development of the Financial Sector of the Russian Federation in the Context of Foreign Policy Uncertainty
Методологические подходы к построению среднесрочного прогноза развития финансового сектора Российской Федерации в условиях внешнеполитической неопределённости
Andreev, Mikhail (Андреев, Михаил) (),
Khromov, Michael (Хромов, Михаил) () and
Shchelokova, Dina (Щёлкова, Дина) ()
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Andreev, Mikhail (Андреев, Михаил): Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Khromov, Michael (Хромов, Михаил): Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Shchelokova, Dina (Щёлкова, Дина): Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
The object of the study is the Russian financial market: the banking system, APFs, insurance companies, management companies, money market, debt market, foreign exchange market. The goal of the work is to develop a methodology for building a medium-term forecast of the financial market and in developing the forecast itself. As a result of the conducted research the following methodology of construction of the forecast is offered. The medium-term forecast for the development of Russia's financial sector is built in the form of a dynamic quarterly model. In this model, the Russian economy is described as the interaction of several types of economic agents: Population, Producers, Banks, Central Bank, Ministry of Finance (budget). Dynamics of variables of various agents within the forecast is subject to several types of relationships: Financial balances of individual agents (producers, banks, the Central Bank), The balance of financial flows of all agents, the institutional constraints of the production function for producers, the demand for loans from producers, the demand function for real household consumption, the demand for new household loans, the supply of household loans, the demand for settlement accounts in the Central Bank from commercial banks, Etc.), Equilibrium in certain markets (macroeconomic balance, balance of payments). Based on the results of the development of the methodology, scenarios for the development of the financial sector for 2016-2018 in the coming years were compiled and analyzed. The defining factors in 2016-2018 for the development of the financial sector will be 1) the growth in demand for credit resources from enterprises, which is partially met by the resources of non-residents, 2) the budget deficit and the means of its financing. Depending on the external forecast of key indicators of the real sector development, the forecast (model) is completing the indicators of the financial sector. The monetary and fiscal policy of the state is chosen in the forecast such that the external forecast of the real sector is realized.
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