Public sector external debt sustainability in the face of uncertainty

Устойчивость внешнего долга государственного сектора в условиях неопределённости

Ilya Sokolov, Belev, Sergey (Белев, Сергей) (), Tischenko, Tatiana (Тищенко, Татьяна) (), Suchkova, Olga (Сучкова, Ольга) (), Khuzina, Alfiya (Хузина, Альфия) (), Anna Komarnitskaya (), Matveev, Evgeniy (Матвеев, Евгений) () and Moguchev, Nikita S. (Могучев, Никита С.) ()
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Belev, Sergey (Белев, Сергей): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Tischenko, Tatiana (Тищенко, Татьяна): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Suchkova, Olga (Сучкова, Ольга): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Khuzina, Alfiya (Хузина, Альфия): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Matveev, Evgeniy (Матвеев, Евгений): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Moguchev, Nikita S. (Могучев, Никита С.): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: This report presents the main results of the research on the Methodological approaches to assessing the sustainability of public sector external debt. The paper provides an overview of definitions and empirical approaches to assessing the sustainability of a country's external debt, and analyzes current trends in the dynamics of the debt burden of developed and emerging countries as well. Using a probabilistic approach to the external debt sustainability index, an assessment was made of the probability of solvency of the Russian Federation in terms of external debt, taking into account the specific shocks for the oil-exporting country. Using a binary tree model in a sample of developing countries, we identified the that increase the likelihood of default. Despite maintaining a low level of Russia's external public debt, further loans may be undesirable.

Pages: 77 pages
Date: 2020-05
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