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Modelling of Inflationary Processes in Russia

Моделирование инфляционных процессов в России

Egorov D.A. (Егоров, Д.А.) () and Perevyshina E.A. (Перевышина, Е.А.) ()
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Egorov D.A. (Егоров, Д.А.): Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Perevyshina E.A. (Перевышина, Е.А.): Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: This study is devoted to the analysis of two empirical approaches to modeling inflationary processes in Russia and abroad: the cost approach, and the Phillips curve. The authors examine the application of these approaches for the analysis of inflation factors in different countries, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. Both approaches are used for the analysis of inflation in Russia in the 2000s. As part of the cost approach, a model for the consumer price index is estimated. Besides, various Phillips curve modifications are estimated for the consumer price index and various measures of economic activity (output gap, unemployment, unit labor costs). It is shown that the inflationary process in Russia is better described by the hybrid Phillips curve with output gap.

Keywords: inflationary processes; Russian economy; hybrid Phillips curve; output gap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 96 pages
Date: 2016-03-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-mac and nep-tra
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