Development of a Methodology for Balancing the Medium – and Long-Term Forecasts of Social – Economic Development of the Russian Federation

РАЗРАБОТКА МЕТОДОЛОГИИ КОНТРОЛЯ ЗА СБАЛАНСИРОВАННОСТЬЮ СРЕДНЕ– И ДОЛГОСРОЧНЫХ ПРОГНОЗОВ СОЦИАЛЬНО–ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

Vedev, Aleksey (Ведев, Алексей) ()
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Vedev, Aleksey (Ведев, Алексей): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: The object of the study was the economy of the Russian Federation, institutional agents (the state, non-financial enterprises, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Federation, the outside world, the population, the banking system), individual sectors of the economy. The main purpose of the study was to develop a methodology for monitoring the balance of economic and financial indicators based on the developed tools for assessing the consistency of forecast indicators of institutional financial balances (mutual linking of macro indicators and financial balances on the based on the matrix of institutional accounts and their extensions for the financial sector, as well as a summary of all financial flows into a single resulting matrix). The methodology of the work consisted in conducting a comprehensive economic analysis, building econometric and balance models of individual segments of the national economy. Building a system of balance sheets of economic development indicators based on matrices of institutional accounts. Building balance sheets of financial indicators of the main institutional agents. Building balance sheets of major financial instruments. Conducting intersectoral balancing of economic indicators. The balance sheets of financial flows should be mutually linked with the main indicators of the development of the national economy. Such an obvious statement is not always confirmed in the actual practice of forecasting in Russia – medium – and long-term forecasts are developed only for real indicators of production, consumption and investment, as well as real disposable incomes of the population. Additionally, forecasts of the banking system and financial markets they are prepared in isolation from the main macro indicators. During the calculations, balancing is performed at each step of the simulation. The results of the research can be used for the theoretical development and practical use of a wide range of economic models, prognostic expertise of long–term growth factors and trends in the development of the financial sector of the Russian economy, scientific and methodological support in the development of specific directions, measures and mechanisms of state policy in the development of individual segments of the financial market.

Pages: 82 pages
Date: 2021-01-15
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