Inflation expectations accuracy in russian economy

Точность инфляционных ожиданий в российской экономике

Perevyshin, Yuriy (Перевышин, Юрий) () and Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) ()
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Perevyshin, Yuriy (Перевышин, Юрий): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: The paper reveals the features of measuring inflation expectations of the households, professional forecasters, financial market in the Russian economy. We show that households overestimate actual inflation by 4 percentage points, and the bias is higher than in developed countries. The medium-term expectations of professional forecasters in the Russian economy are anchored on the target of the Bank of Russia of 4%, but its systematically below inflation in the period 2017-2023. Inflation expectations of professional forecasters have the best accuracy; however, they are worse in accuracy to univariate econometric forecasting models even on a short-term horizon of 1-2 quarters. In 2022 medium-term inflation expectations of financial market participants unanchored, increasing by 2.7 percentage points (from 4.1% in 2021). Inflation expectations obtained from inflation-indexed bonds for 2028-2030 were at the level of 5% in 2021 and were not anchored, in 2022 its increased by another 2.4 percentage points. Bank of Russia should include in the household survey the question of their inflation expectations for 10 years ahead and expand company monitoring with the question of the expected price dynamics on the horizon of 2-3 years.

Keywords: inflation expectations; inflation forecasting; inflation; monetary policy; inflation-indexed bonds; univariate time series models; forecast accuracy; anchoring of inflation expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 D84 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2023
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