Politici fiscale prociclice si anticiclice, in tarile membre UE non-euro

Aurel Iancu and Dan Olteanu

Studii Economice from Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE)

Abstract: In this study we aim to determine the nature of the discretionary fiscal policy practiced by non-euro EU member states (of which Romania is a part) and to deduce some inclinations or preferences of some of these countries for one of the two types of fiscal policies - procyclical or anticyclical. For this purpose, we used time series for the period 1995-2020, of the cyclically-adjusted primary balance, the output gap (actual GDP - potential GDP), as well as additional indicators - public debt, fiscal rules index and election years. From the signs and magnitude of the correlation and regression coefficients, it results that almost all countries have learned the necessary lessons from the economic / financial crisis, in order to move from a pro-cyclical policy, during 1995-2008, to an anti-cyclical policy, in 2009-2020. This is confirmed both by the coefficients calculated for each country and by the average coefficients calculated for the whole group of countries, over the two periods.

Keywords: discretionary fiscal policy; fiscal reaction function; procyclicality; business cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E62 E65 H61 H62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2021-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ror:seince:211130

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