Extending the Macroeconomic Impacts Forecasting Capabilities of the National Energy Modeling System

Christa Court (), Randall Jackson (), Amanda Steele (), Justin Adder (), Gavin Pickenpaugh () and Charles Zelek ()
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Christa Court: Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida
Amanda Steele: KeyLogic Systems LLC-NETL
Justin Adder: U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory
Gavin Pickenpaugh: U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory
Charles Zelek: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy

Working Papers from Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University

Abstract: To comprehensively model the macroeconomic impacts that result from changes in long-term energyeconomy forecasts, the United States Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) partnered with West Virginia University’s (WVU) Regional Research Institute to develop the NETL/WVU econometric input-output (ECIO) model. The NETL/WVU ECIO model is an impacts forecasting model that functions as an extension of the U.S. energy-economic models available from the United States (U.S.) Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Market Allocation (MARKAL) model. The ECIO model integrates a macroeconomic econometric forecasting model and an input-output accounting framework along derived forecast scenarios detailing a baseline of the U.S. energy-economy and an alternative forecast on how power generation resources can meet future levels of energy demand to generate estimates of the impacts to gross domestic product, employment, and labor income. This manuscript provides an overview of the model design, assumptions, and standard outputs.

Keywords: Energy-Economy Forecasting; National Energy Modeling System; Input-Output Model; Econometric Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 O33 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2020-10-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-for, nep-hme, nep-mac and nep-ore
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