An alternative bayes factor for testing for unit autoregressive roots

Caterina Conigliani and F. Spezzaferri

No 31, Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' from Department of Economics - University Roma Tre

Abstract: In this paper we deal with the identification of an autoregressive model for an observed time series, and the detection of a unit root in its characteristic polynomial. This is a big issue concerned with distinguishing stationary time series from time series for which differencing is required to induce stationarity. We consider a Bayesian approach, and particular attention is devoted to the problem of the sensitivity of the standard Bayesian analysis with respect to the choice of the prior distribution for the autoregressive coefficients.

Keywords: Autoregressive model; bayes factor; model selection; noninformative prior distributions time series; unit root (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-12
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