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Studying Co-Movements in Large Multivariate Data Prior to Multivariate Modelling

Gianluca Cubadda, Alain Hecq and Franz Palm

No 125, CEIS Research Paper from Tor Vergata University, CEIS

Abstract: For non-stationary vector autoregressive models (VAR hereafter, or VAR with moving average, VARMA hereafter), we show that the presence of common cyclical features or cointegration leads to a reduction of the order of the implied univariate autoregressive-moving average (ARIMA hereafter) models. This finding can explain why we identify parsimonious univariate ARIMA models in applied research although VAR models of typical order and dimension used in macroeconometrics imply nonparsimonious univariate ARIMA representations. Next, we develop a strategy for studying interactions between variables prior to possibly modelling them in a multivariate setting. Indeed, the similarity of the autoregressive roots will be informative about the presence of co-movements in a set of multiple time series. Our results justify both the use of a panel setup with homogeneous autoregression and heterogeneous cross-correlated vector moving average errors and a factor structure, and the use of cross-sectional aggregates of ARIMA series to estimate the homogeneous autoregression.

Keywords: Interactions; multiple time series; co-movements; ARIMA; cointegration; common cycles; dynamic panel data. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2008-07-14, Revised 2008-07-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-ets
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Studying co-movements in large multivariate data prior to multivariate modelling (2009) Downloads
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