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Long-run Unemployment and Macroeconomic Volatility

Stefano Fasani ()

No 408, CEIS Research Paper from Tor Vergata University, CEIS

Abstract: This paper develops a DSGE model with downward nominal wage rigidity, in which aggregate price and productivity dynamics are exogenously determined by independent Brownian motions with drift. As a result, the long-run expected value of unemployment depends positively on the drift coe¢ cients and negatively on the volatility coe¢ cients of both price and productivity growth processes. Model prescriptions are empirically tested by using a dataset including a wide sample of OECD countries from a period spanning from 1961 to 2011. Panel regressions with fixed effects and time dummies confirm the expected relation of inflation and productivity with unemployment at low frequencies. Long-run unemployment is negatively correlated with the levels of inflation and productivity growth, and positively with their volatilities.

Keywords: Long-run unemployment; Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity; Volatility; Inflationation targeting; DSGE model; Cross-country panel data. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E12 E24 E31 C23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-mac
Date: 2017-07-10, Revised 2017-07-10
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Working Paper: Long-run Unemployment and Macroeconomic Volatility (2016) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:408

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CEIS - Centre for Economic and International Studies - Faculty of Economics - University of Rome "Tor Vergata" - Via Columbia, 2 00133 Roma
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