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Human Capital-based Growth with Depopulation and Class-size Effects: Theory and Empirics

Alberto Bucci, Lorenzo Carbonari, Giovanni Trovato () and Pedro Trivin
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Giovanni Trovato: DEF,University of Rome "Tor Vergata", http://www.ceistorvergata.it

No 575, CEIS Research Paper from Tor Vergata University, CEIS

Abstract: Building on Lucas (1988), we develop a model in which the impact of population dynamics on per capita GDP and human capital depends on the balance of intertemporal altruism effects towards future generations and class-size effects on an individual’s education investment. We show that there is a critical level of the class-size effect that determines whether a decline in population growth will lead to a decrease or an increase in a country’s long-run growth rate of real per capita income. We take the model to OECD data, using a semi-parametric technique. This allows us to classify countries into groups based on their long-term growth trajectories, revealing patterns not captured by previous studies on the topic.

Keywords: Long-run economic growth; Depopulation; Class-size effects; Human capital investment. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 O11 O41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2024-04-30, Revised 2024-04-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-lab and nep-ure
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Working Paper: Human Capital-based Growth with Depopulation and Class-size Effects: Theory and Empirics (2024) Downloads
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