Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market

Michael Frömmel, N. Kiss M, Klara Pinter and -
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Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium from Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Abstract: We investigate the relation between the intradaily HUF/EUR exchange rate on the one hand and news announcements and order flow on the other hand. We extend the existing literature on foreign exchange market microstructure by considering a small open transition economy. We find that the intradaily exchange rate depends on both, news announcements and order flow. We conclude that news on the HUF/EUR market are transmitted directly via immediate reactions to news announcements as well as indirectly via order flow. We decompose the news’ total effect on exchange rate and find that order flow accounts for approximately three quarters, compared to one quarter for direct news impact. Although the HUF is pegged to the EUR, the exchange rate shows similar characteristics as reported in the literature for major currencies. It does, however, differ in quantitative terms: the importance of indirect news transmission is remarkably higher on the HUF/EUR market. Furthermore, we extend the commonly used set of news by communication of central bankers and significantly improve the explanatory power of the estimates. Thus, central bank communication can be regarded as an important determinant for the HUF/EUR rate.

Keywords: microstructure; order flow; exchange rate; macroeconomic news; central bank communication; Hungary (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G14 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2009-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ifn, nep-mst and nep-tra
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Related works:
Journal Article: Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market (2011)
Working Paper: Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rug:rugwps:09/626

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