Born (or Not) under Weak Statehood:Fertility and Institutional Shocks in Mexico

María Florencia Ruiz
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María Florencia Ruiz: Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andrés

No 21, Young Researchers Working Papers from Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia

Abstract: This paper examines how state-led institutional shocks in low-capacity settings can shape demographic behavior. I analyze two Mexican case studies in which the state sought to consolidate control and reassert authority: the 1992 ejido land-titling reform and President Calderón’s militarized anti-narcotics campaign. I use a difference-in-differences design for the former and a close-elections regression discontinuity for the latter, where narrow PAN victories proxy intensified anti-drug enforcement, to estimate causal effects on conception rates. Conception rates fall significantly in response to both shocks—roughly 1–2% for land titling and about 10% following narrow PAN wins—underscoring that institutional change can influence demographic behavior.

Keywords: Fertility; State building; Institutional shocks; Land reform; Anti-drug enforcement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 O12 O17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2026-03, Revised 2026-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sad:ypaper:21

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