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A decade of Eurasian Integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian Economic Union

Augusto Cerqua (), Pierluigi Montalbano () and Zhansaya Temerbulatova ()
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Zhansaya Temerbulatova: Al-Farabi Kazakh National University

No 1/21, Working Papers from Sapienza University of Rome, DISS

Abstract: This paper provides a sound ex-post evaluation of the impact of the Eurasian integration on member countries’ bilateral trade after ten years of implementation. We overcome the main limitations of current empirical analyses on the effects of trade agreements, namely the aggregation of tariff and non-tariff barriers and the likely self-selection bias, by applying a mean balancing approach, a novel non-parametric method specifically designed to fully exploit time-series cross-sectional data. We thus compare the trade flows of the member countries in the Eurasian agreement with 754 exporter-importer pairs located in the Eurasian continent having similar pre-treatment features. Our results confirm the previous literature about the lack of a significant impact of the Eurasian customs union, but find positive net effects of more recent integration steps. These results are robust in respect of several sensitivity tests, and provide evidence of the need to deepen Eurasian integration.

Keywords: Eurasian Economic Union, bilateral trade, preferential trade agreements; policy evaluation; mean balancing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis
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