Long-Run Trend, Business Cycles and Short-Run Shocks in Real GDP
Muhammad Arby ()
No 1, SBP Working Paper Series from State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department
Gross domestic product may be considered, a combination of three processes viz., long-run trend, business cycles and short-run shocks. The series of GDP can be decomposed in to its three components by using some statistical method. Such a decomposition of real GDP of Pakistan reveals that the Pakistan’s economy has a declining growth in long-run trend since early 1980s that however, is expected to start rising in 2001-02. Pakistan is also facing a recessionary phase of third business cycle, which is expected to end in 2004-05.
Keywords: Business cycles; GDP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 E30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 13 pages
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