Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population

David Lamper, Sam Howison and Neil Johnson

OFRC Working Papers Series from Oxford Financial Research Centre

Abstract: The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.

Date: 2001
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